Pot Odds vs. Break Even

[Rogue Coder]

Okay, so this has had me thinking for a few days now and I still can't see my way clear on it.

According to the course (the way I am reading it) says that if your pot odds are a higher percentage than your break even odds, then it is a good bet right? Did I not understand something?

Anyhow on the chapter end quiz for chapter 4 (I think) there is a question about having 4 to the flush after the flop and when the opposing player bets offering your 3 to 1 on the pot that the proper play is to fold. It gave the reason as you are 36% to make your hand on the turn, and you are being offered a break even of 25%. The correct play is to fold.

My answer was to call, since the break even percentage is 25% and the possibility of you making your hand on the turn is 36%, it would be enough of a difference to warrent a call.

Am I missing something here? I reveiwed the course and I thought my answer was correct, so I guess if I am wrong (which wouldn't be unheard of...) then what am I doing wrong here?

Rogue Coder

[Rolls]

look at i this way...

If you are 100% to make a hand (theoretical, no deffinate hand description!), and you need to call a 25% chance on the turn, then your break even is higher than what you need to call. So the break even percentage should be higher than the pot odds.

the other way to think about it, is if you have 0% to make your hand, and you are offered 10% pot odds, you should fold, becuase there is no way to win the hand.

So basically to call, you need to have a break even higher than the pot odds.

At least i think that is right!!! Probably not the most eloquently put, but if you go to the extremes it does make a little more sense!

[Rogue Coder]

Then I must be very confused.

Here is what the course says...

So lets bring the two elements together and arrive at a decision.

To do this we compare the percentage probability that we are going to hit one of our Outs and win the hand, with the Break Even Percentage.

Using the two examples above (assuming they are the same hand)

Probability of Hitting an Out = 48%
Break Even Percentage = 25%

If our Probability of hitting an out is higher than the Break Even percentage then this represents a good bet – the odds are in our favour.

Why? Because what we are saying above is that we are going to get the winning hand 48% of the time, yet in order to break even we only need to hit the winning hand 25% of the time, so over the long run making this bet will be profitable.
This is saying that if the pot odds offered are over what the break even is, then it is a good bet.

[The Professor]

What you are saying is perfectly correct Rogue.

If you have 36% odds to make your hand and getting a break even % of 25% then you are correct to say you should call.

It may be an error in the question / answer - or the only other thing I can think of is that the question said after the turn (instead of after the flop) in which case the % to hit your flush on the river would only be 18% and in this situation you would be correct to fold.

If you have any more details on which question it is I will check if there is an error in the question - if not I'll have a browse through later and see if I can spot it.

But your logic is ok and you are correct in your understanding of the concepts.

[Rogue Coder]

That is totally possible. It might have been stated after the turn and I could have misread it. It was in the End of Module 3 quiz. It was talking about you having the KQ suited and flopping 4 to the flush.

I recall though that in the explanation that it mentioned the break even was 25% and the Pot was offering 36% (at least I think)

I would be interested in knowing if I am just being a donk and misread it though.. :)

Thanks for clearing that up for me.

Rogue Coder