Paradise $40k Tournament - Made the money

[The Professor]

But before you all get excited ..... it could of been alot more.

First prize was $11k, and the annoying thing is that the hand I went out on was a $90k pot, if I had won that, I probably would of made the final table, and been a real contender for top prize.

Instead I go out in 48th place and take a measly $135

Take a look at the final hand

[PokerKid]

Hard luck prof. That would of been a nice payout $11k

I can see a nice discussion point here though - was going all-in with A Q the right move is this situation after a raise from early position and a call from mid position?

Not saying it isn't - just thought it would be a good topic for discussion

[The Professor]

Good question ... I'll explain why I moved all in and then you can discuss if you think it was the right play.

First lets deal with the maths behind the decision:

Blinds were at $4k / $2k and the antes were at $200 per player - so before the pot began you had $8k in the pot.

Early position raised to $12k (standard 3x raise) and mid position called $12k. So when the action got to me the pot already stood at $32k.

My stack was at $33k and I was being asked to call $12k to be in the pot.


So thats the maths out the way.... now onto the hand analysis:

I was holding A Q which is a premium hand, although towards the bottom of the premium hands. If I just flat called to see the flop, that was going to be a third of my chips, and with the blinds and Antes at $8k a round, I would of only been left with 2 rounds if I had just called and then had to fold on the flop, and I certainly didn't want to play against 2 opponents.

So I had really made my mind up based on that, to either fold or raise. Now I had to try and work out what these two guys were holding. I thought that the guy in mid position was most likely to be holding a middle pair, and I'd put him on a pair of nines - I thought I could probably move him off the hand if I went all in (after he folded he said he had pocket tens)

The question was what did the guy in early position have. As always towards this stage of the tournament and when there is $8k of blinds and antes in the pot each hand, there was alot of raising and stealing going on, so I thought there was a possibility that this guy had made a raise with a more marginal hand like KJ or AT or similar just to try and take the pot down. In this situation I would of been ahead if he called, and most likely could of moved him off the hand and taken the pot down. The other hand I put him on was a premium pair, but I was thinking perhaps JJ in which case I was getting roughly 50/50 and the pot odds were good for me in that situation as I was getting 3 to 1.

So I thought I had the right odds to make my move, with the chance I could take a $30k pot down there and then or be in a $90k pot with a 50/50 chance.

So thats the reason I moved all in. Unfortunately he turned over kings, which was a better hand than I was expecting, and not the 50/50 I was hoping for, but I still had the overcard and a glimmer of hope.

Maybe I should of folded - but then I would of only had about 3 - 4 rounds left, and perhaps would of just blinded down my chip stack waiting for a better hand than A Q, and not having the chip power to make a move.

[OdinUK]

yeh was sorta unlucky to run into KK there, was either all in or fold. Personally with the raise and a call i woulda folded and waited for some chances to rob the blinds and antes.
Still nice to have made a cash rather than nothing though.

[Deuces]

I think its all about the player and what they are willing to risk with, being blinded down I can see that AQ was a possible all in hand and the guy could easily of raised with AJ to steal blinds plus antes with an A high, however at this late in the tourney you can expect the players to be good so when a raise 3x blinds happens it is less likely to be AJ so you have to put them on AK or a pair. This puts 50/50 at best and if not 50/50 a major underdog. Sorry prof but I am agreeing with the others on this, a fold would have been the best move.

[The Professor]

Thats fine - its what a discussion is all about - not everyone will agree.

I actually don't disagree with you or odin, I think a fold wouldn't of been an "incorrect move" - but I also think the move I made was also not incorrect.

The guy in question had been stealing alot of pots, and so there was a chance he had a marginal hand - also being short stacked and only approx 3 blinds+antes left I was happy to take a 50/50 situation, and would of been happy if he had turned over JJ or TT or a smaller pair.

But in short I don't disagree with folding - but where you guys are seeing the strength from his raise - I didn't read as much strength at the time, because he had been stealing so much.

Nevermind - maybe next time I won a small 50 player tournament last night taking home $400 which isn't a huge payout, but will finance my tournament entries over the next week or so.

[francis lee]

fold everytime. A Q is one of those hands that more than likely be the end of your tourney especially against a raiser and 1 caller. the 1 caller is key. unless youve got a top pair AA KK QQ (i hate JJ against more than 1 person in the pot) your more than likely to see at least 1 pp and 1 a? thats 1 of your aces down the drain. you would be better off trying to bluff a blind later on and gain 12,00

most people that go out ive seen that has had a healthy ish stack has been due to the old AQ AJ A10. they are killers beleive me.

. wait. let more people go out because as soon as the bubble position has gone you see 10 -15 ppl go out in around 15 minutes which doubles your garunteed amount.. in that situation. did the tourney only pay 50 ppl? this would be on a full 10 player table by the way

[The Professor]

Payout was to 60th place - I'd already survived the bubble about 20 mins earlier, and there wasn't really alot of difference in the prize money between 20th - 50th, so I wasn't interested in clinging on for a few extra dollars.

I was after the final table, which was a 4 figure payout to everyone at the final table and a 5 figure payout to the winner.

[THC]

Think i would of folded aswell but I may have made a move like you if he had been aggressive like you said

[ironbaden]

I know I'm only a beginner but i tend to gamble more once i'm past the bubble..... I probably wouldn't have folded.