Odds and Outs...

[Smyler]

Calculating pots odds and outs for draws is simple enough and as a long term strategy for avoiding losses on draws it makes perfect sense. But is there an inverse for this rule?

What I mean is this, say you are holding a low/mid pair and flop a set, but there is a flush draw (not for you) on the flop. Obviously you want to push the potential flushes away with a decent sized bet, but there is a risk involved here as there are plenty of people who will call a bet on a flush draw over the odds, particularly if they hold A + high card. It might be bad play on their part but it happens.

So i hold 77

late position, i raise, 2 guys call, say 1 of these guys holds Ac 9c

flop = 7c 9c 6h

my odds to win are high so i can try to push him away but his odds (he thinks) are pretty good also. He bets according to the 'rules' of odds and outs, so i think he is on a flush draw, (I'm assuming the other guy doesnt have AK since he didnt reraise me) i raise and the third guy folds... but how much should i raise? what are my odds here... (the chances of seeing another 7 are low, though i could make FH), is there a similar way of calculating the level of bet that will be a good long term strategy? or should i just go all in?

[The Professor]

As long as your opponent is calling your bets when you he hasn't got the correct odds to do so, then that is fine, as he is making the mistake and more often than not you will win out in this scenario and take the money. A small percentage of the time he will catch his draw, but he will be underpaid for this, as he called too much compared to his % chance of making the winning hand.

In terms of your example. If you think that with a flush draw after the flop, you have about a 36% chance of hitting your flush with 2 cards to come. This means you need about 2-1 pot odds.

So you need to make sure that your opponent is not getting 2-1 odds, so that if he calls he is overpaying to hit his draw.

if you bet the size of the pot you are offering 2-1 odds, so you need to overbet the pot slightly.

For example if there was $10 in the pot before the flop, and your opponent bets $5 to try and get a cheap card, the total pot is now $15.

You should be looking to raise by at least $20 - $25 as this only gives your opponent pot odds of about 1.75 to 1.